Population and house prices – is there a link Sherlock?

According to The Office for National Statistics estimated there were 64.1 million people in the UK in June 2013, a rise of 0.63% on the previous year. That equates to a population growth of more than 400,000 which apparently is more than any other country in the EU and it’s a rate that will soon take the UK to over 70 million.

So where’s all that increase coming from. Apparently just over half was down to natural change – births minus deaths – while net migration represented 46% of the rise and interestingly more than a quarter of all births came from immigrant mothers. A quarter of the UK population growth was in London.

At the same time we appear to be caught up in another housing boom. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney warned of “deep structural problems” in the British housing market stemming from a shortage of fresh stock. It is most chronic in the South East where Savills estimates a shortage well into the hundred thousands. Co-incidentally last week official figures showed annual house price rising at around 9.9% pa – with London showing a near 19% rise.

And so the conversation concerning the Great House Price Inflation Robbery began:

Holmes begins, “Dr Watson, there is nothing like first hand evidence. We have a growing population, largely driven by immigration or the offspring of immigration. We have a shortage of houses which I deduce must have something to do with the fact that we have more people to house – I would surmise that should the population remain flat then there would be no material increase number of houses.”
Dr Watson steps in, “With you so far Holmes old chap, although perhaps I could add to your last point to acknowledge the role of the single parent family in all this. Apparently nearly 25% of households are now single parent – a number which has trebled over the last 4 decades.”
Back to Holmes, “Good point Watson and it is clear there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. So we would need a small increase in new homes to account for those people who can longer bring themselves to share the same living space with their family.”
Watson “Absolutely old chap. And a damned shame it is too! Then there is also the need to build houses that are replacements for those that are no longer fit for purpose.”
Holmes again, “Another point well made, my dear Dr Watson. However, having gathered these facts and smoked several pipes over them, trying to separate those which were crucial from others which were merely incidental. I concluded them as merely incidental compared to population increase as the leading culprit in this dastardly robbery.”
Holmes went on, “I confess to knowing no earthly reason why the leaders of our great nation do not appear to make the glaringly obvious connection between immigration and the increase in population that so violently contributes to the housing shortage and consequent bubble. Surely any man not blinded by the need of the populist vote could conclude the same and then react accordingly.”
Dr Watson exhales slowly before adding, “All very well old chap. But more people, means more “needs” to be satisfied which ultimately means more jobs and more spending. The connection may well have been made Holmes, but it’s a turkey voting for Christmas like move for any politician to stifle what little growth there may be in the economy. I’ve even heard some comment that the infrastructure, such as schools, hospitals and transport, can’t take the added load, only to be informed by those of a certain persuasion, that investment in infrastructure will in itself create more jobs and make the government more appealing to voters.”
Holmes responds swiftly “I think that you know me well enough, Watson, to understand that I am by no means a nervous man. At the same time, it is stupidity rather than courage to refuse to recognize danger when it is close upon you. This reminds me of the curious incident of the dog in the night-time”
Dr Watson inquires “But the dog did nothing at night-time”
Holmes again “That was the curious incident! Here we have a government with an apparent need to demonstrate growth to the voting public. Growth is a curious beast. Its variances means little on the streets, but as a headline it symbolises prosperity and has become a battle cry to rally the troops. In a country getting close to the edge of all it can consume without losing it’s buttons and popping it’s shirt, the only way to maintain the illusion of growth is to grow the population. I imagine you will find a very different per capita picture from that promoted by our government of the day – something which the common man fails to grasp. In the short-term such rapid population growth will lead to house price inflation and it can also fuel anti-immigration sentiment as shown by the results for that Moriarty like creature and his UKIP party – but they are merely bumps in the road. More serious are the possible long-term effects of such an approach. A national debt of £1.4tn growing at over £5k per second simply cannot stomach the increased public spending required to grow the infrastructure needed to maintain a harmonious community – and that figure does not even include the alarming pension deficit. The night-time is fast approaching, Watson – decisions need to be made quickly to reduce the debt and ensure harmony on our streets is maintained – but if the dog doesn’t raise itself into action, it may be a long time before the light returns”

With that, Watson poured himself a quick tipple and changed the subject to why England seem incapable of winning the World Cup

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